Climate change leaves a bitter taste in world’s coffee supply

Mondo

image-638

Climate change is posing a significant threat to the global coffee industry, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the world's second and fourth largest coffee producers, Vietnam and Indonesia, are located. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and prolonged droughts are affecting coffee crops, leading to lower yields and quality. By 2050, up to 50% of land suitable for coffee cultivation could be lost. This decrease in supply coincides with rising global demand, leading to higher prices and potential unsustainability of coffee farming. The article suggests that stakeholders, including governments, international organizations, major coffee companies, and consumers, need to take action to support climate-resilient coffee varieties, provide financial and technical assistance to farmers, and promote sustainable practices. Consumers can also support sustainable coffee brands and advocate for stronger climate policies.

Commentary: Climate change leaves a bitter taste in world’s coffee supply

With supply and quality declining due to climate changes, the simple pleasure of a cup of coffee may become a costly indulgence, says this Australian National University researcher.

CANBERRA: Every morning, millions of people around the world find solace in a cup of coffee. But this cherished daily routine is under siege as climate change drives up costs and diminishes the flavour of coffee – and Asia’s major coffee producers find themselves on the frontlines.

Southeast Asia, in particular, is a powerhouse in the global coffee market, with Vietnam and Indonesia being the world’s second and fourth biggest coffee producers respectively. In 2023, Vietnam produced 29.1 million 60kg bags of coffee while Indonesia contributed 11.85 million. Other countries in the region such as Thailand, Laos and the Philippines are also increasing their output.

But rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts are taking a toll on coffee crops.

Coffee plants are highly sensitive to climatic changes and the increasing heat can impair their growth, reduce yields and lower the quality of the beans. Pests like the coffee berry borer, which thrive in warmer conditions, are further exacerbating the situation, leading to significant crop losses. By 2050, up to 50 per cent of land suitable for coffee cultivation may be lost due to climate change.

COFFEE SUPPLY IS DOWN, DEMAND IS UP

 

The inconvenient reality is that key coffee-producing regions located in the Coffee Belt – between 20 degrees north and 30 degrees south of the equator – are among the most vulnerable to climate change. This puts the global coffee supply at increasing risk.

The long-term implications of climate change for the coffee industry are concerning. As climate conditions worsen, the supply of coffee from Southeast Asia and other key regions is likely to shrink.

This decrease in supply coincides with a rising global demand for coffee, driven by population growth and the beverage’s enduring popularity as a health-enhancing stimulant in people’s increasingly hectic lives. The Global Coffee Market Compound Annual Growth Rate for 2024 to 2032 is projected at 5.4 per cent.

Economic repercussions are inevitable. As coffee yields decline, prices will rise, impacting the entire market. The price of robusta coffee has nearly doubled since early 2023 mainly due to drought in Vietnam.

While some coffee producers might benefit from higher prices in the short term, the long-term outlook is bleak. Persistent climate challenges could render coffee farming unsustainable, forcing small farmers to abandon cultivation.

Indietro