Strategy Grains now assumes that the 27 European member states will export a total of around 28 million tons of wheat in the 2021-2022 season. Over the past two months, the analyst firm has consistently lowered its wheat export forecast. In May, 29.9 million tons were expected and 31.4 million tons the month before.
According to Strategy Grains, the cause of the lower export forecast is the loss of global demand due to rising wheat prices, mainly due to the crisis in Ukraine. There is also increasing competition in the export market of grains from North America and Russia. For that reason, the export volumes for the EU are also estimated to be slightly lower for next year. The French analysts now assume 30.3 million tons of wheat, compared to 30.8 million tons last month.
Strategy Grains is now also slightly less positive about the wheat harvest than a month ago. For the EU, the expected harvest for 2022-2023 is now 124.4 million tonnes. That is 1.8 million tons less than the forecast in May, mainly due to the drought at the start of the growing season. Expected production for the EU is about the same as the five-year average, but 6 million tonnes lower than last year.