“Russia's wheat supply continues to pressure the market, even though shipments are moving 'sideways' at the moment. The price of Russian cereal is around US$ 350 a ton, below US$ 420 for American wheat”, assesses Marcelo de Baco, a runner in the wheat market.
Private consultants estimate that Russia will harvest more than 100 million tons in the 2022/23 season. Baco believes, on the other hand, that the decline in prices should not last, as there are problems with the harvest in the Southern Hemisphere. He cites the crop failure in Argentina, which compromised the exportable surplus, and the worsening quality of Australian wheat.
With the continuity of the Ukrainian grain corridor through the Black Sea priced, Marcelo de Baco says that investors should now follow the final phase of winter wheat planting in the Northern Hemisphere, where the climate situation opens space for price increases.
“The market may react to upcoming planting reports from Russia, Ukraine, the European Union, the United States and Canada, which are the top five wheat exporters in the Northern Hemisphere. In October, the climate was drier than in the same month last year, but the possible effects will only be felt when winter ends in these areas”, he said.