The upward revision of China's red meat import forecast was partly driven by higher estimates for 2022 due to stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter shipments. For 2023, the expected economic recovery as well as the anticipated recovery of the hotel, restaurant and institutional (HRI) sector will support the expansion of red meat consumption and imports.
Despite the upward adjustment of China's pork production in 2023 compared to the forecast in October 2022, the domestic supply has barely changed compared to the same period in 2022 and is difficult to fully meet the demand. recovery demand.
In 2023, beef imports are expected to increase, but shipping rates will slow as importers with refrigerated products need to enter the market before they invest in additional purchases.
China's chicken imports are revised below pre-pandemic levels. Lower pork prices are expected to reduce consumer demand for chicken. However, imported chicken only accounts for about 4% of consumption.
Beef
• Global beef production in 2023 was virtually unchanged from the October forecast of 59.2 million tons. Global ham prices fell in 2023 — excluding the US. Graded meat prices, however, remain relatively high compared to pre-pandemic levels, indicating limited supply and solid demand from key markets.
• Global beef exports in 2023 were virtually unchanged from the October forecast of 12.2 million tons. An increase in Chinese imports due to the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions will strengthen HRI demand.
Australi and Brazil are expected to gain market share due to lower exportable supplies in the US, Uruguay and Argentina. US imports also increased as lower US beef production supported additional imports from Brazil and Australia.
Pork
• Global pork production in 2023 is revised up 3% from the October 2022 forecast to 114.1 million tons due to higher production in China. Pork demand is expected to increase in China due to the recently lifted COVID-19 restrictions. Production forecasts were mostly unchanged for other countries.
• Global pork exports in 2023 are forecast to be 2% higher than the October 2022 forecast to 10.7 million tons as exports from the EU, Brazil and the US grow stronger than anticipated demand from other countries. key market in Asia. The upward revision of imports by China and the Philippines will more than offset the decline in the US. Philippine imports are forecast to be higher as the pork import tax cut is extended until 2023. African swine fever continues to constrain Philippine production, boosting import demand.
Chicken
• Global chicken meat production in 2023 was virtually unchanged from the October 2022 forecast of 102.9 million tonnes as upward revisions for the UK, Thailand and Mexico offset the declines in Brazil. UK manufacturing continues to expand due to high demand despite labor issues, higher input costs and the recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Lower feed and genetics production costs will boost Thai production. Brazil was revised lower due to weaker foreign demand, especially from China.
• Global chicken exports in 2023 were revised 1% lower than the October 2022 forecast to 14.0 million tons.
Weaker demand from China, the EU, South Africa and the UK will mainly affect Brazil, the world's top exporter.
Although Brazilian shipments are forecast to be lower than the October 2022 forecast, volumes are expected to still reach historic levels. Competitive prices, no avian flu and a wide range of products will allow Brazil to reduce shipments to China and be largely offset by other markets.