Soybean prices are falling under pressure from increased supplies from South America and good US planting conditions


Against the background of accelerating harvesting in Argentina and active planting in the US, May soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday fell 1.3% to $420.9/t (-2% for the week, -3.5% for the month) , which will increase the pressure on export prices in Ukraine, which stopped growing and started to fall again.

According to the Conab agency, in Brazil on April 28 soybeans were harvested on 90.5% of 45.2 million hectares (93.7% last year), and dry weather in the southern states allows to speed up work, so local analysts are raising harvest forecasts. In April, the country exported 12.8 million tons of soybeans, which is 10% less than in April 2023, while exports of soybean meal grew by 32.5%.

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), as a result of prolonged rains in Argentina, soybeans were harvested in only 22.5% of the area on April 25 (45.3% of the 5-year average), but dry weather in the coming weeks will allow for faster harvesting.

In the USA, due to warm weather with periodic precipitation, 18% of the planned area was sown with soybeans on April 28 (10% on average over 5 years).

Yesterday, the US President's Administration released the SAF feedstock guidance, according to which soybean-derived biodiesel will meet the requirements only if producers use zero-tillage and cover cropping methods (analogous to the European ISCC). This plunged soybean oil prices by 5.8% as pressure on soybean quotes increased.

In Ukraine, exporters reduced the prices of GMO soybeans by $5-10/t to $400-410/t, and increased the prices of non-GMO soybeans by $5-10/t to $435-440/t with delivery to ports Black Sea in May.

Processors continue to compete with exporters, which is why they have raised prices for GMO soybeans to UAH 18,300-18,500/t, and for non-GMO soybeans to UAH 19,200-19,500/t with delivery to the factory.

Ukrainian soybean meal cannot withstand competition on the EU market due to its too high price, so the export demand for it is low, and the volume of supply is increasing.